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Price to Win is the price at which you will likely win a competition based on how all competitors are evaluated by the buyer; Price and Non-Price factors are taken into consideration. Price to Win is also shorthand for the process and professional function of evaluating competitions.

TruPredict® is a real-time analysis tool that allows users to understand overall competitive positioning, risk tolerance, and optimal bid strategy through a series of alternative “what if” scenarios.

• Creates a repeatable process to develop enhanced win strategies
• Captures uncertainty utilizing Monte Carlo Simulations
• Easily create and compare What-if  Scenario Analysis
• Quantify Cost and Non-Cost Factors

TruPredict is a high-performance simulation framework designed to run on common commercial pcs. While it is completely compatible with lower spec systems for performance reasons, it is recommended to have a least a minimum of 8 GB of RAM.

• Microsoft Windows 7+
• .NET Framework 4.7.2 or later
• All model data is self-contained within the local TruPredict model file.
• Recommended Hardware Minimum 8GB RAM

TruPredict® allows a more accurate, repeatable calculation of an organization’s Price to Win. This allows for more informed bids, faster win strategy development, more understanding of your competition, and, ultimately, a higher probability of winning competitive bids.

Organizations currently use a range of tools, from very general analytics tools (i.e., Excel) to very specific cost estimating tools. These tools vary in their capability to produce standardized outputs, facilitate consistent approaches, or include a range of outcomes. Most existing tools also do not explicitly include other competitors in their analysis – instead focusing solely on their own organization’s bid.
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Once a cost estimate is produced, business development, capture management, and executive personnel often influence the price downward in an effort to win the competition. This can reflect subjective knowledge of the customer’s buying tendencies, the competition evaluation criteria, or expected bids by competitors.

TruPredict® allows for a tool-enabled Price to Win process. It provides a single source to bring together contract details, pricing inputs, competitor evaluations, and competition evaluation criteria to produce a repeatable Price to Win estimate.

Price to Win analysis must include uncertainty in order to be accurate – the practitioner is estimating a future price to deliver their solution, compared against an unknown group of competitors, and judged by a group of customers with their own internal biases.
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However, some current approaches do not include mathematical uncertainty in their calculation, instead defaulting to deterministic inputs and results. Others include uncertainty but are cumbersome to use, require advanced experience with statistics, or effectively limit the size of the analysis due to computational requirements.

Monte Carlo analysis is a mathematical approach to solving problems with uncertainty. Instead of inputs being represented by a single number, they are represented by a group of numbers that form a likely distribution of outcomes. When combining variables with uncertainty, each input is independently distributed and combined at random to form the result.

A repeatable Price to Win process allows for efficiency in training, development, and delivery of standardized deliverables to internal and external decision-makers. This can facilitate faster, less expensive bids and flexible business capture approaches.